GRF International Task Force
on the Future of the Nuclear Deal with Iran
October 13-14, 2016
The first meeting of the “GRF International Task Force on the Future of the Nuclear Deal with Iran: Preserving, Solidifying and Leveraging a Diplomatic Success,” was held at the Yapi Kredi Yeniköy Grove on October 13 and 14, 2016. The Task Force was established to generate a constructive set of policies to maintain the momentum of and constructively steer the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program, which presents an unprecedented opportunity to engage Iran and has the potential to affect the broader Middle East and international security.
Held with the participation of 12 Task Force members including GRF members as well as experts on nuclear disarmament from China, India, Iran, Israel, Russia and the US, the sessions were also joined by four expert rapporteurs from China, Germany, Italy and Turkey.
The introductory remarks of the Task Force meeting were delivered by the co-chairs of the meeting, GRF Vice-Chairman and President Memduh Karakullukçu, Former Special Envoy of the Prime Minister for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Issues (Ret.) Amb. Rakesh Sood, and Director of the International Security Program at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Chair of the Pugwash Executive Committee, Dr. Steven E. Miller.
After the introductory speeches, the meeting began with a session entitled “Containing Geo-strategic Fault Lines,” in which the participants analyzed the extent of the JCPOA’s resilience to the broader tensions and crises in the region, and reflected on the appropriate institutional mechanisms and strategies to increase its endurance against shifting geo-strategic fault lines.
In the second session of the meeting, entitled “Domestic Political Dynamics,” the main focus was on the effect of domestic politics in Iran, Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US on the durability of the agreement. The participants evaluated the vulnerability of the JCPOA to domestic pressures, especially within the context of the upcoming elections in the US and Iran.
In the final session of the first day of meetings, “Economic Factors,” the participants discussed the ways in which economically driven actions might potentially undermine or strengthen the JCPOA.
The second day of meetings commenced with a session on “Leveraging the JCPOA Laterally: Broader Cooperation for Regional / Global Security,” where participants discussed whether it is possible to build on the momentum of the JCPOA to start negotiations in other security domains such as cyber, maritime or missile capabilities.
The fifth session focused on “Extending the JCPOA Temporally,” addressing the possibility of continuing arms control efforts with Iran after the completion of the JCPOA’s lifespan, and the incentives that could mitigate the potentially destabilizing effects of the deal’s 10-15 year cut-off points.
On the sixth and last session, “Iran’s Economic Engagement with the Region and the World,” participants discussed the likelihood of Iran becoming a regionally and globally integrated market economy, and sought to devise policies that would help alleviate domestic and external reservations related to the transformations that the integration process would require.
The second and final meeting of the Task Force is scheduled to take place in January 2017, and will focus on the draft Task Force report that is being written by the expert rapporteurs based on the exchanges of the first meeting.
Please click for the Task Force members’ list and the detailed meeting agenda.